8/15/25 - Beechhurst Capital Advisors LLC Asset Allocation Model Update

We are still early in our series of articles describing our asset allocation model but we still wanted to give all of our readers an update. In general, we rebalance our model portfolio quarterly but we like to make our research available weekly to those who are interested in following our work. Again, this isn’t investment advice so please discuss our research with your financial or investment advisor prior to making any investment decisions. This article has been written for educational purposes only. We are NOT your financial or investment advisor. (Our lawyer made us include this disclaimer).

Asset Allocation Model Portfolio

Here is our model asset allocation portfolio. We believe in America and our markets. Since 2009, the US markets have been the world leader in investment returns and we use the US markets as our sturdy base. VTI is perfect as a base since the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) is invested in over 3,000 equities and gives us exposure to US based companies of all sizes at one very low cost (the expense ratio is 0.03% or $3 per $10,000 invested). VTI is either on or off so to speak depending on its technical filter. The other four positions are based on a combination of technical factors, such as momentum and trend. We’d like to bring you all up to speed so here are our current allocations, last rebalanced on June 30, 2025.

1. Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) - 60%

2. iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) - 10%

3. iShares Gold ETF (IAU) - 10%

4. Vanguard Global ex-US Real Estate ETF (VNQI) - 10%

5. Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS) - 10%

ETF Analysis and Discussion

Stocks

This week saw equities continuing to act well and respecting their 10 week moving averages, which is the short term trend filter in our model. Both equities ETFs, VTI and VXUS, closed at new highs as equities in both the US and around the world shook off the effects of global trade policies and geopolitics to end the week at new highs.

Bonds

Fixed income ETFs continue to score below our system’s minimum gradient score for possible allocation of funds and inclusion in the portfolio. That may change for both BND and EDV if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates going forward into the end of this year as predicted by many, but we take a wait and see approach. For now, other asset classes, including equities and others are continuing to outperform bonds and we continue to prioritize stronger performers over weaker performers.

Real Estate

International real estate is continuing to outperform US real estate, with VNQI moving higher to new all time highs. An interest cut by the Federal Reserve could help propel US real estate, both real estate investment trusts (REITs) and private real estate, forward but again, we will wait to see what happens. We don’t predict markets. We “read the room” and act accordingly.

Commodities, Digital Assets and the US dollar

With both the US dollar (UUP) moving lower and a broad basket of commodities (PDBC) in a trendless state, both ETFs are in a no zone and not included in our model portfolio at this time. Gold and Bitcoin are a different story.

Bitcoin has the highest gradient score in our model and therefore, is included in the model portfolio. IBIT acts similar to a high growth/technology stock ETF. The weakness seen this week, with price reversing lower off of a previous all time high price, is not a consideration in the inclusion or exclusion of IBIT in our model. IBIT has been a stellar performer this year and will continue to be part of our model portfolio until its gradient score tells us to remove it.

• Side note - Ethereum has recently been outperforming Bitcoin. We don’t trade cryptocurrencies but we made a decision to include IBIT in our model because it is has become an increasingly important part of the financial world. Having said that, if you want to use our model portfolio to help you make your own allocation decisions, please ask your own advisor about their opinion and feel free to adjust any allocations to IBIT to meet your own tolerance for taking risk.

Gold is currently in a state of consolidation and could move higher or lower based on factors such as persistent inflation or an unexpected change in geopolitics. IAU continued its sideways consolidation, finding support at its 10 week simple moving average. Volume has also dried up a little bit. The gradient score for IAU has decreased a bit over the last 4-5 weeks but that’s normal during a consolidation.

We want to give you fair warning if you plan on following our weekly updates. Don’t expect many, if any, changes week to week. Our style of investing is like watching grass grow and that works for us. Please follow us on X (@beechhurstcap) for important updates regarding the model portfolio in real time and other interesting ideas we stumble upon. Until next week, be well and stay safe!